Putin may be delusional enough to really believe he can command a horde of under-trained, under-armed, under-dressed, and under-motivated boozers to storm Ukraine through the winter.
But if not, his plan could be entirely different than it seems at first. If he’s also understood—like most—that win is impossible, he’d go for the next best thing: survival; if necessary, handcuffed on a button in a nuclear bunker, Tony Montana style.
If he declares defeat, he goes down by either plot or revolution; trial and prison at best, gallows at worst. He has to get rid of all, Left and Right, potential dissidents. But the assassinating capacity of his security apparatus is overwhelmed. Drastic means are needed.
The Extreme Right demographic is easy. They bring themselves in. Mobilization is what they wanted all along. The Left is harder. A part of it leaves voluntarily in an allowed exodus, but another has to be taken from the streets and their homes. Requires manpower and logistics.
Russian soldiers wouldn’t go door to door in occupied territories for the sake of a referendum’s result. That only takes a TV presenter and a crew of actors. The Russian canvassing squads in the streets of Kherson are filtering the population.
All disliked populational elements within Russia and occupied territories are disposed of on the frontlines. The luckiest will escape, surrender, and end up in refugee camps around the world. The rest perish, like their grandfathers, trapped between an army and barrier troops.
He may or may not be able to retain any piece of Ukraine. But that would be a bonus. The primary objective is Russia. The external threat stops at the border. The internal one has to be cleansed.
Then he’s left with a thoroughly apathetic, zombie-like population of literal slaves whose only alternative to manning his nuclear castle is manning a perpetual border war. And he can keep living his childhood fantasy deep into senility.
